



But it is not clear whether this fall is simply the result of chance variation, which is expected when dealing with relatively small numbers, or whether the recession has also had an effect.
The provisional data for the 2008/09 period, which runs from 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2009, indicates a fatality rate of 0.59 per 100,000 workers, which the HSE says represents a "statistically significant decrease" on the five-year average of 0.77.
The executive says the new figures represent a continuation of the underlying downward trend established in the late 1990s and early part of this decade. This trend was disrupted by what HSE statisticians have described as an apparent levelling off in recent years, and in particular by a worrying jump in workplace fatalities in 2006/07, when 247 people were killed. That increase was attributable to a sharp a rise of 25% in building site deaths.
The new statistics show a significant improvement in the construction industry, which was the centre of so much concern two years ago. There were 53 deaths in the sector in the latest reporting period, down from 72 last year, and much lower than the five-year average of 70. The rate of fatal injury has also fallen compared with the five-year average, from 3.4 to 2.4.
HSE chair Judith Hackitt said the executive very much welcomed this year's "encouraging" figures, but added, "This statistical snapshot needs careful analysis to help us understand the underlying factors, including the impact of the recession."
The evidence from previous downturns indicates that injury rates fall during a recession because fewer new, inexperienced workers are recruited and there is a lower work effort: the proportion of people working long hours falls as demand declines.
The newly released 2008/09 figures are provisional until June next year, when they will be adjusted to reflect any late reports of incidents; deaths that occur some time after the incident; and any new information arising from coroners' rulings and investigations, which can reveal whether or not an accident was work-related, for example.